When ESPN MLB Insider Jeff Passan sits down to talk baseball, you listen. In a recent episode of All the Smoke Baseball, Passan peeled back the curtain on some of the sport’s most pressing issues, from blockbuster trades that almost happened to the alarming trends sweeping through youth travel ball.

Here are the key takeaways from the interview.

1. The Imminent MLB Lockout (But Don’t Panic Yet)

With the current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) expiring soon, the word “lockout” is looming over the sport. Passan confirmed that a new deal likely won’t be in place by the December 1st deadline [06:36].

The core of the conflict? Owners are pushing to implement a salary cap to address “competitive balance,” an idea the MLBPA will fundamentally reject [09:17]. However, Passan advises fans not to panic over doomsday headlines in December. The real time to worry about the season being in jeopardy is if there is no movement by mid-February or early March [07:17].

2. The Epidemic in Youth Pitching

Perhaps the most crucial segment of the interview centered around youth arm care and the intense pressure on young pitchers. Passan, who spent 14 years reporting on elbow injuries for his book, noted that the incentive structure in youth baseball is broken [35:49].

• The Velocity Trap: Pitchers hitting 91-93 mph out of high school are now routinely going to Junior College because that velocity simply isn’t enough for Division 1 anymore [36:22]. The benchmark has moved to 95 mph with devastating secondary pitches.
• Dangerous Coaching Tactics: Because of this pressure, coaches are working to artificially increase velocity in 10-to-12-year-olds before their growth plates have even closed [37:06].
• The Business of Youth Sports: Passan criticized how the youth sports landscape has become a year-round corporate machine, pushing parents and kids into a system that capitalizes on their desire for opportunities [39:46]. This is a massive wake-up call for anyone involved in developing young athletes.

3. The Shohei Ohtani Era & The Trade That Almost Was

Shohei Ohtani is a global monolith. Between his contract and endorsements, Passan estimates Ohtani is making upwards of $100 million annually, effectively turning the Dodgers into the “Shohei Ohtani Shell Corporation” [29:23].

But his path could have looked vastly different. Before Ohtani’s free agency, the Angels briefly entertained trading him. The team that almost landed him? The Tampa Bay Rays [13:51]. The Rays were willing to trade top prospects Wander Franco and Junior Caminero—a deal that would have been a historic disaster for Tampa Bay given Franco’s subsequent legal troubles [14:24].

Passan also touched on breaking the Ohtani/Ippei Mizuhara gambling story. The initial tip he received was actually that Ohtani might have a gambling problem [24:25]. He later publicly apologized for getting the initial assumption wrong, stressing the importance of humility in journalism [27:06].

4. Hall of Fame Protests & Quick Hits

Passan gave up his Hall of Fame vote out of protest in 2017 [14:48]. His stance is that the Hall of Fame exists to tell the entire story of baseball—including its flawed figures. He argues that keeping out the greatest talents of an era, like Barry Bonds, is a disingenuous way to tell the sport’s history [15:34].

Passan’s Quick Hits:

• Game 7 Starter (All-Time): Randy Johnson. His 6’10” frame, extension, and devastating fastball/slider combo make him the ultimate nightmare for hitters [43:24].
• Best Ballpark Food: The grilled onions at Comiskey Park (White Sox) [42:32].
• Best Game Attended: Game 7 of the 2016 World Series between the Cubs and Indians [45:20].

To catch the full conversation, check out the interview on the All the Smoke Baseball YouTube channel. Jeff Passan Gets REAL about Ohtani, MLB Lockout & Baseball’s Biggest Secrets